October 17 Court Decision – Don’t Expect Much

October 17th is being trumpeted by many as a critical day in the history of Pakistan, it is a day which can be earmarked as a day to make or break one too many political giants of the present era. Two highly important political cases will be discussed while the Pakistani community holds it breath for their final decision. One case being the issue about the validity of Presidents Musharraf’s second 5-year stint as President of Pakistan and the other important case which is the life line of Benazir Bhutto and her heroic return the next day to Karachi being the NRO.

The NRO is officially referred to as the National Reconciliatory Ordinance which should have better been drafted as the National Robbers Ordinance, as it was created by thieves to protect their own fellow thieves. How can a country forgive crooks like Benazir Bhutto, Asif Zardari, Aftab Sherpao and Altaf Hussain with one simple stroke of the pen. All these, and many other politicians from 1989 – 1999 are criminals by any standard of the law they have plundered this country threadbare and now hope to whitewash their crimes with a gracious deal from the President in exchange for offering him another lifeline of a few more years of power.

Pakistanis it seems are yet again holding their breath with the hope that the Supreme Court will make a last valiant attempt to salvage this nation from these crooks, but the all-knowing elitist grapevine is abuzz with the belief Benazir will land in Karachi to a heroic welcome on the 18th of October and Musharraf will be the next King President of Pakistan.

A very respected ex-judge of the Supreme Court, in a personal discussion with me a few days back, was very optimistic about the Judicial process specially in the post CJP crisis era, but felt helpless when he witnesses undue pressure being applied on judges by the establishment to do according to their whims, this according to him has been going on for a good too many weeks. These unfair arm-bending tactics have its toll and then nothing can be done to save the judges from passing an unfair decision in any case. He also believed that the 11-member bench which is slated to hear Musharraf’s case has been carefully constituted seemingly in full consultations with Shareef uddin Peerzada, to ensure a positive outcome for Musharraf.

If we take a close look at the 11-member bench, in light of their previous decisions, the bench seemingly poised at 6-5 against Musharraf, he now needs only to sway one judge to swing this decision into his favor. It must be noted that on Oct 10 this bench was revised to a more favorable position with Justice Sardar Mohammad Raza Khan (who had initially dissented in President’s uniform case) the CJP while reconstituting the bench gave the explanation that Justice Sardar Mohammad Raza Khan had already given his views that Gen Musharraf was not qualified to contest the election. Quite surprisingly he found an excuse to remove Justice Raza Khan leaving five judges who had already given a positive opinion for Musharraf and his uniform

1. Justice Javed Iqbal – (Upheld the Presidents uniform) (also had quickly agreed to become the acting chief justice immediately after the “suspension of CJ Chaudhry on March 9)
2. Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar – (Upheld the Presidents uniform)
3. Justice M. Javed Buttar – (Upheld the Presidents uniform)
4. Justice Mohammad Nawa – (Upheld the Presidents uniform) also (Upheld the restoration of CJP Ch. Iftikhar)
5. Justice Faqir Mohammad Khokar – (Upheld the Presidents uniform) (dissented in CJP case)
6. Justice Khalilur Rehman Ramday – (Upheld the restoration of CJP Ch. Iftikhar)
7. Justice Tasadduq Hussain Jilani – (Upheld the restoration of CJP Ch. Iftikhar)
8. Justice Raja Fayyaz Ahmed – (Upheld the restoration of CJP Ch. Iftikhar)
9. Justice Syed Jamshed Ali – (Upheld the restoration of CJP Ch. Iftikhar)
10. Justice Ghulam Rabbani – (Upheld the restoration of CJP Ch. Iftikhar)
11. Justice Ch Ijaz Ahmed – (Upheld the restoration of CJP Ch. Iftikhar)

At the same time a very influential stock market broker in a closed door meeting has made the statement that enough money has changed hands with the judges that the establishment is ensured a positive outcome in the Supreme Court cases. He made this statement four days before the 6-3 decision on Musharrafs uniform, hence already proven tp be correct on one occasion with one more crucial decision left and I suspect he has made the right call yet again

The afore mentioned stock broker was so confident of his opinion that he told the people to stop speculating about the outcome of Musharraf and be assured that he will be the President and BB will come to Karachi. Is honest financial advise back then, was to invest in HubCo and OGDC shares, offering this as a financial tip for the future.

My analysis for tomorrow is bleak and I expect to my utter dissatisfaction a decision in favor of Musharraf which will ensure his five years as the President of Pakistan. He has lubricated the judges only so much so as to allow for this decision to slip by, the NRO was a smoke screen and once assured of his seat in power Musharraf cares little of what happens to the NRO. If by any chance the NRO is thrown out of the door, Benazir will undoubtedly have a flying fit since all her plans for a heroic return to Pakistan will most definitely be chucked out of the door.

For the sake of Pakistan I hope none of these decisions go in their favor, but I suspect a very dirty game afoot which shall probably come to a close in barely 24 hours from now

Until then lets all pray for Pakistan