Musharraf – Saved By the CIA and Zardari?

Guest Post by Hassan Abbas

The world is abuzz with news about the impending impeachment of General Musharraf . Pakistan’s ruling coalition goes around with broad smiles, oozing confidence about the outcome of their efforts. Even the vibes coming from Washington which has so often affected the fate of Pakistani governments seems to be supportive of their action. Should we expect to see Zardari as the next President of Pakistan in place of Musharraf any time soon?

First a brief review of the significant events as they developed. An American brokered deal led to the return of Benazir , things did not work out as she was assassinated. The PPP riding on a sympathy wave for Benazir was expected to sweep the elections, with Musharraf’s Party a close second, and MQM getting its fair share of seats from Sind .This would ensure that Musharraf’s crowd formed the ruling coalition.

But Nawaz Sharif –returning to Pakistan only a day before elections – upset the apple cart by securing the majority in Punjab .Musharraf’s party was almost wiped out, and PPP didn’t do as well as was expected. It now became impossible for Zardari to form a coalition with Musharraf’s people, so he formed one with Nawaz Sharif instead.

Thereafter Zardari committed one mistake after another. He violated his agreement with Nawaz Sharif leading to PML (N) federal ministers resigning from their seats.Worst of all he treated Mr. Amin Faheem in a most shabby manner, virtually ousting him by ignoring and excluding him from all important meetings and decisions.Amin Faheem is the one who for eight long years worked hard to ensure the party remained united and did not succumb to Musharraf’s inducements to sell it’s soul.

All this intrigue prevented Zardari from impeaching Musharraf while the iron was hot .The rise in oil, food and fuel prices-as well shortage of electricity added to the PPP woes. The people got disillusioned . Zardari never held in high regard for his conduct,further lost his standing even in Sind for his shabby treatment of Ameen Faheem.

Suddenly three days back he decided to impeach the President. His timing couldn’t have been more wrong even if he wanted to, but as we shall soon see perhaps he had no choice.

The American commanders as well as their allies in Afghanistan getting restive about way things were going in Pakistan, threatened to launch hot pursuit operations across Pakistan’s borders into FATA.The CIA also started making unfriendly noises about their long time ally-and surrogate- the ISI. This along with a shocking ‘breaking news’ story about American torture and illegal detention of Dr. Aafia Siddique and her minor child, raised anti-American feelings to a fever pitch .

On the eve of his departure for USA, Prime Minister Gilani issued an order placing the ISI under civilian control. The CIA chief also issued another statement to the effect the ISI needed to be reigned in. The PM’s delegation on their return immediately gave circulation to the American views about ISI– perhaps to impart added strength to their order about ISI!

President Musharraf on the other hand issued a very strong statement against any cross border attack by US troops, and also stated that ISI was Pakistan’s asset and ‘anyone’ talking against it was an enemy. Within the day the Prime Minister had to retract his ISI order!All of a sudden the shoe was on the other foot. Musharraf who was believed to be an American ‘stooge’ was the one standing up against them, and the one’s who had won elections on a nationalistic and pro-democratic agenda were being perceived as American stooges!

Getting back to the impeachment, some people feel that after the taking back of the ISI order it became a do or die matter for the PPP government. Feeling their days would now be numbered, they had no option but to go for impeachment.

Now let’s look at Musharraf’s options, he has already said he would stand and fight the charges any way he can. Resigning tamely would be against his nature. Dissolving the National Assembly (which he has the constitutional right to do) would lead to further political chaos, and is therefore least likely. Taking the case to his ‘hand picked’ Supreme Court to either delay or set aside the proceedings on legal grounds is one workable option.

But even better is collecting enough support to defeat the impeachment proceedings in the national assembly. Can he do so?

The coalition needs 295 votes to be successful against him – counting the votes of all likely allies they claim they have 305. Now that’s only a question of 10 votes. To cause 10 people to switch sides is no gordian’s knot – more so when the one’s who do so can also cast themselves in the role of anti-American patriots.

Incidently PPP has claimed over 40 people from Musharraf’s party wishing to switch sides. In my view, for two reasons, this is likely a political ploy to encourage defection .Firstly because this is almost all members ofPML(Q), and secondly a party which lost elections because their leader was considered an American stooge, would think twice before they join those who are now so considered.

But more importantly there is Amen Faheem. He has already issued a statement that he would treat the PPP as they treated him after the election. That bodes ill for any PPP attempt to impeach Musharraf – for should he carry out his threat he could easily take 25 to 30 PPP votes over to The President.

It seems Zardari and the CIA chief has given Musharraf a life line. My bets now are Musharraf is here to stay.


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12 responses to “Musharraf – Saved By the CIA and Zardari?”

  1. tazeen Avatar

    Hassan Abbas sahab,

    You are putting too much stock on the intellectual prowess of our politicians, they never think before they act and never act if they ever deign to think or if any one else thinks things for them.

  2. shah nwaz Avatar
    shah nwaz

    musharaf should be impeached and he should be trialed under article 6 of 1973 constitution

  3. Jusathot Avatar
    Jusathot

    The other equation that need to be taken into the account: uncle sam will discard as “used lemons” those who may have reached a point of diminishing returns. After all, there is no shortage of suckers in our Establishment – who are hooked on USD as a junkie on LSD. As soon as they have their new sucker lobotomized and ready, Mush would be mash-potato, albeit with some kind of deal or ‘dheel’ – similar to one offered to other suckers in the past.

  4. d0ct0r Avatar
    d0ct0r

    Mr Hassan’s argument is quite strong.Musharraf buying off 10~15 voters who would have otherwise voted against him is quite easy , just show them money(lots of money) and they’ll be ready to sell their souls.it would be quite hard for coalition to keep the herd together. Zardari is not ashamed of repeatedly getting embarrassed publicly so he won’t have much problem,but Nawaz Sharif and his constituents would be disappointed and embarrassed

  5. smartbobby Avatar
    smartbobby

    I am among the silent majority supporter of President Parvez Musharaf.
    All I can say is that after Quaid e Azam, Musharaf is the only person for whom I can swear that he is not a corrupt man,has been able to improve the economy of the country from the brink of bankruptcy,has deep love and affection for the poor and down trodden oakistanis.We in Pakistan are use to a controlled democracy.
    The imprtant factor is that both PPP and Nawaz had the oportunity to run the country twice, but most unfortunately both during their two regimes have never been able to do anything for the poor pakistani’s.Parvez Musharaf must stay in power.Musharaf had tried to give a pardon to PPP and Nawaz both insppite of their wrong doinsg and plunder during their times, and I think Pervez Musharaf was wrong in giivng them the pardon.Time has now come to give the present coliation a defeating blow and let Pervez Musharaf remain the President of Pakistan.

  6. d0ct0r Avatar
    d0ct0r

    @smartbobby Mush is not so clean,his corruption will put to shame even the likes of plunderer like Asif Zardari. Ever since start of sham ‘war on terror’ he has been embezzling almost $1 billion each year,even Americans are astounded about the missing and misappropriated money.

  7. d0ct0r Avatar
    d0ct0r

    @smartbobby and that’s just tip of the iceberg,if his mates from MQM can be involved in 450 billion land scandal then obviously he was their boss, he must have been involved in some thing even bigger

    http://karachi.metblogs.com/2008/05/06/explosive-findings-unearth-450-billion-scandal-by-outgoing-mqm-minister/

    https://teeth.com.pk/blog/2008/05/10/was-mqm-involved-in-a-rs-450-bln-real-estate-scam

    http://karachi.metblogs.com/2008/05/08/master-file-of-karachi-real-estate-scam-disappears/

  8. M.Arshad Avatar
    M.Arshad

    Our politicians are playing the game not in order to save the country but to put it under more pressure, this is not the time to fight each other, america is sitting on our door and the poor afghan president (the puppet) is calling to attack pakistan.
    Our dear politicians are making the enemy more strong and the case against the country more solid so it would be easy for america to attack the country. They are not so clean that they have blamed mush, all are same be it mush , nawaz or zardari they are naked in the pool.

  9. hassan Abbas Avatar
    hassan Abbas

    Amin Faheem and his son have left for Dubai and woun,t be available for the impeachment vote.That’s two PPP votes less already.I wait with baited breath to see how many more will leave,or will fall sick on that day.

  10. eng iftikhar ch Avatar
    eng iftikhar ch

    I think writer is 100 percent rigt.it is a topi drama to putt blanket on judges movment.Imran khan is the only politician who declared this eppisode as drama and i m fully convinced to him.
    Musharraf is so deet that he will not leave the chair easily.
    go back to dictators histry they love to die even in between skies butt never gave up.
    the only salution is restoration of nov3 judiciary.leave impeachment to cj iftikhar and his 60 colligues.

  11. khaled Avatar
    khaled

    What about approval from senate as still PML (Q) is in majority there?

  12. readinglord Avatar
    readinglord

    @smartbobby

    You say Mush as not corrupt. Hahaha! Have you not heard the wise saying 'Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely'. For your information 'corruption ' means abuse or misuse of power. Mush made the worst use of power entrusted to him to defend the country which he misused to occupy it dishonestly to become the master of all its resources. It is the continuation of that very corruption of power which is being indulged in by Zardari today against the people of Pakistan to deny them their basic human rights. What is required is to try and punish them for treason in terms of Art.6 of the Constitution.