Jaosn Kottke carries a link of a report where a UCLA geography Professor Thomas Gillespie has used a technique typically used for tracking endangered species in order to pinpoint the most likely location Osama Bin Ladin, the worlds most wanted terrorist. In a paper (pdf) published in the MIT International Review
Gillespie describes how he used bio-geographic data including bin Laden’s last known location, cultural background, security needs, declining health, limited mobility and height to create a mathematical model that he claims will show where the terror mastermind is hiding.
He found a 90 percent chance that bin Laden is in Kurram province in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, most likely in the town of Parachinar which gave shelter to a larger number of Mujahedin during the 1980s. Here’s a closer look at the region with Osama probabilities shown:
Gillespie even identified three buildings in Parachinar that would make the most likely shelters for Bin Laden and his entourage. Here’s are the three locations identified with their precise coordinates as presented by Professor Thomas Gillespie
I share this report merely to ridicule the utter nonsense the so called American scientists present to the American people, and this so-called-credible research then becomes the basis upon which idiots like George Bush to have utilized when bombing millions of people around the world, a mere hit and miss policy with a 90% probability. In all honesty if Mr. Gillespie research is so scientific and Osama Bin Laden is speculated to have run into Pakistan, then might I challenge the theory with the same distance position Osama Bin Laden to be located within 90% probability in a room next to Hamid Karzai right in the heart of Kabul. Whilst with the remaining 10% doubt I could speculate OBL to be on a horse back galloping away into the sunset in one remote location in the heart of one exclusive Bush family ranches in Texas?
Story Credit KO
Comments
31 responses to “UCLA Scientist predicts Osama Bin Laden in Kurram Agency [90% probability]”
What happened to the claim of USA for Weapons of Mass distruction?Where are those weapons.
For Osama they have killed half of Afghnistan and Pakistan.
Now they must get lost.
They will find Osama in teh brain waves of George Bush ,je recieve messages from God.
I would not be surprised if CIA had created soem ALlian figure in some Nuclear space believing it is a God.
Shame on USA,its scientists and technology.
Khurram Agency is a Shia Area 🙂
To me, this is laughable indeed.It is with utter surprise that I wonder how long shall they go on with such baseless speculations. It is amazing and amusing to see how obsessed they have become in transforming Osama into a a faity tale character. Their beliefs about him are clearing bordering on superstitions now. All I would like to say to them is : lagay rho! 🙂
90% probability or 90% uncertainty?
If chance of Osama to be in Khurram agency is about 90%, then how the hell it goes down in the whole world to 10%.
Can someone explain this figure to me ?
You know what? Let's drop the "h". Make it Kurram 🙂
hummmm! thats interesting.
americans are highly unpredictable.
no one knows what come across is a joke or calculated and well planned tactic.
Barrister AKC
Were you on holidays?Good point.
Now what USA wants to use Paksitan against Iran.
Dr Jawwad
They do not joke,but it is their sense of humour to create an enemy out of people and than kill nations.
@ just inflict upon American pigs some casualities
about 800 maimed and lynched, the whole truth will
out, The bullshit of Osama Bin laden is becoming
rusted and fake.
OSAMA BIN LADEN IS IN ISRAEL. BOMB ISRAELI NOW !
@ btw, who are those UCLA Scientist ?
or are they simply Mossad agents,
or CIA's Israeli passport holders
@ yes, seems barrister AKC was on holidays
in Kurram agency,
Bin Laden is in Israel?! Bomb Israel now?!
Haha!
the joke is that the first of the three pics – i can't vouch for this as i've never seen a satellite image of the place seems awfully like the Hussaini Markaz in Parachinar – which is not only an Imambargah but the centre of the Shia resistance movement against the Sunni militants in the region. People familiar with the area know that the area has always been a flashpoint of sectarian warfare since the days Allama Arif Hussain Al Hussaini (former leader of Tehreek-e-Jafaria Pakistan) who was himself from Parachinar and even before. For the past year or so the violence in the valley has been incredible with hundreds of casualties on both sides. The Shia Turi tribes have taken virtually all of North Kurram except the Sunni stronghold of Sada town which is a few miles out of main Parachinar city while the Sunni bloc more or less controls the Thall-Parachinar highway which is the only access rout to Kurram from Pakistan.
long story short, i find it EXTREMELY unlikely that OBL will be taking refuge in the GHQ of the militants who are actually fighting the TTP footsoldiers and Baitullah's lashkars.
and if i know this, you can bet your life that the UCLA guys know it too. this is probably part of some major propaganda move preliminary to drone attacks in Kurram
Nonsense… his probability of being dead is just as much as his residence in the White House…
RE:Nonsense… his probability of being dead is just as much as his residence in the White House…
A Confident Musharraf On Bin Laden!
http://chagataikhan.blogspot.com/2009/01/confiden…
Historical Facts Muslims Forget so Conveniently
http://chagataikhan.blogspot.com/2008/10/historic…
BTW, I didn’t had the time to elaborate on the Shia Link in Kurram Agency since there’s a full scale sectarian war going on in that agency between Sunni(s) and Shia(s). Interestingly, this is where lot of FC Recruitment takes place too.
IF this fitna Bin Laden would have been sincere with the “Muslim Cause” he would have surrendered before the start of Operation Enduring Freedom and he would have saved thousands of lives but this selfish thug and his clan didn’t do that resulting in this “never-ending war” we are facing. Wherever this “fitna” Bin Laden is, he is safe and laughing at all of us…. !!!!
Whatever happened to intelligent field work and research??? Intelligence being the key word here! Instead of looking for 'Osama the mastermind' maybe the so far surface appearing intelligent Barak administration should watch farenhit 9/11 and figure out the real perparators for 9/11 *points towards Bushes current locale Dallas*.
9/11 was a scam to plunder the resources and bankrupt the world
I think there may be some misunderstanding of the picture. It's just one person's probability picture. He thinks there is a 90% chance that Bin Laden is in an area about 15,000 square miles where there is a strong Al Queda presence. In the grand scheme of things, its a meaningless map, not produced by any US intelligence agency, just a geography teacher of students in California. If you think it's not very good, please make your own.
As for probability, there is a 100% probability he is in the world, if alive. But it is most likely he is in the FATA and its surroundings.
@ Barrister is trying to justify his blunder
with another farce, just like his Leader !!
@ Qasim
your claims seems to me quite janoony,
but you are absolutely right.
Danial Burki, is a fake, but real zionist !
Ohh my GOD… one of my old crush lives in khurrum agency… i have to inform her right away …
@Aysh
@farrah k raja!
right you are!
please have a look the following video named "loose change"
strongly recommended by me.
it is a mind blowing video even for the "so called debinkers of conspiracy theories" a real shock and awe.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=786692944…
Hi every one!
I have read the comments and many people are saying it is fake.I am not a huge fan of internet so I do not know from where the picture has been taken or when.
I do not blame Awab for this.These sort of Dossiers and Docuements were presented before us in Britain and USA,exactly this sort of pictures on Television before US invasion of Iraq.
People have denied this ,OK fine .I accept that drones are not in Pakistan,but are we sure about it?
The reality is whereever drones are in the Sea Naval base or Pakistan ,or Afghanistan ,they are somewhere and they are killing us.
When I say us I mean Afghanistan and Pakistan.I cannot differentiate any more ,the only difference between Afghanis and Pakistanis now is ,all the dead are considered to be Afghanis and alive are to be considered as Pakistanis.
The fact is we are deying.The poorest ,the muslims against eachother………
I do not see Sawatees or Pushtoons or Fata,or Talibaan or Afghan or Pak soldiers ,all I see is blood of Muslims…why break it into sections.Let us not forget British soldiers are deying as well.And yes I feel equally sorry for them.
In the past decade we fought the war of Charlie Wilson.
In this decade we are fighting the war of Bush .
What is the ground reality?Nobody knows.But we surely know people are deying????
Who is responsible for these deaths?
USA .
Why USA is killing us ?
For Osama.
This is a lie.Saddam Hussain was taken over and hanged three years back I think.Mission is still on in Iraq.
My people want to live ,we want to live,What ever challenges we have with Talibaan we will face that,we will resolve that.
USA must leave our region alone.At the bloodshed of Pakistanis and Afghanis now you want to get hold of Iran oil fields.
Do the business in the business like manner.You want oil,negotiate the price,pay it and take it.
USA has given reason to Iraqis who are ARABS and AFGHANIS who are PATHAN warriors reason to fight USA for next hundred years.
They will .Does USA really want this??
for God sake have some common sense?
Website comments always show how ignorant people really are.
thanks ian stien.
Whether Vietnam or Cambodia, Nicaragua or El Salvador it is impressive how so many countries in the world have moved beyond devastating conflicts of the cold war, resolved their differences and found lasting peace. And whether it's India or China, it is impressive how once lagging economies are now global growth centers in the last 20 years. It must be scary to be in Pakistan now with your young men out shooting up hotels in Mumbai and cricketers in Lahore and an economy on the brink of collapse. Why is it that since the cold war there has been so much progress in the rest of the world but so little in Pakistan?
New Yorker please do not generalize like this…have you visited any of these progressive countries recently? watch Slumdog Millionaire that is the reality of the so-called progressive India you talk about!!! Are you even aware of the recent milk scandal in China? that is the reality of a psychologically damaged society which would rather hire outsiders and buy powdered milk than feed their own babies…have you been sleeping since the cold war ended? Oh and by the way Sri Lanka is still in a war.
Aysh..every third world has an underbelly and the rate at which countries like India and China are changing, thing which is today is gone tomm! U know the slums which they have shown in Slumdog is a 2billion $ economy..ie almost half the aid u receive from USA…LOL..I am not glorifying slums but just a fact! Inspite of these problems, India is one fo the fastest growing economies in the WORLD! And PAk fastest growing terrorist centre..hmm 🙂 ! I am not proud of misgivings of my country, no one is but the fact is India is a relatively younger nation and is forerunners in economy already. Imagine what will happen when entire population will be uplifted. We both got independence together and now see the stark difference. I know my comment will follow all the facts listings of blah blah and hate comments but else can be expected from u Pakis eh?? :))
Aysh..every third world has an underbelly and the rate at which countries like India and China are changing, thing which is today is gone tomm! U know the slums which they have shown in Slumdog is a 2billion $ economy..ie almost half the aid u receive from USA…LOL..I am not glorifying slums but just a fact! Inspite of these problems, India is one fo the fastest growing economies in the WORLD! And PAk fastest growing terrorist centre..hmm 🙂 ! I am not proud of misgivings of my country, no one is but the fact is India is a relatively younger nation and is forerunners in economy already. Imagine what will happen when entire population will be uplifted. We both got independence together and now see the stark difference. I know my comment will follow all the facts listings of blah blah and hate comments but wht else can be expected from u Pakis eh?? :))
@Aysh – Actually except Cambodia I've been to every country I mentioned, I have family in El Salvador and worked in India (Bangaluru) for several weeks. Without generalizing I can tell you firsthand that while not everything in these countries is perfect it is a dramatic improvement over what it what it was, and yes, while its slums remain (and I've seen them) India's growth is phenomenal (and statistically ongoing despite the global recession). So the question remains, what is wrong with Pakistan? Other countries experienced lots of conflict during the cold war and many were caught between the Soviets and the US, the KGB and the CIA and yet nearly all others have moved on and prospered. Why can't Pakistan? India, which saw the end of colonial rule at the same time Pakistan did, has become an enormous technology powerhouse. Looking at the news it looks like Pakistan's only strength is in finding new ways to plan mass murder (including the killing of other muslims) and reading the comments on this blog it appears that many of you believe Pakistan's failings are the fault of everyone but Pakistanis themselves. You know that "Charlie Wilson's War" took place 30 years ago, right?
While the US-hating conspiracy theorists (like Farrah, for example) among you will never believe it, the US actually wants to see a peaceful, prosperous Pakistan and we have given you billions of dollars in aid in the last eight years in the hopes that you'll actually see a stable government that doesn't export murderers. As I said on another thread, we have better things to spend our money on – for better or worse we are currently the world's global economic engine – like, say, creating jobs than fighting with a bunch of tribal warlords who have done absolutely nothing to advance civilization apart from impose Shariah and cultivate poppies. Frankly, we'd love nothing more than to forget about your region altogether. However, with your ability to threaten world peace (what with an unstable government, terrorist harboring, terrorist exporting and nuclear arsenal) walking away would present unacceptable risks.
When I read an article about India it usually begins with how many US jobs a successful company there has taken when I read an article about Pakistan it usually begins with how many lives were taken in the latest murder spree, hopefully someone in Pakistan will take responsibility for this catastrophe and do something to fix it.
So… They were right? nice.