I am copying an email from discussion on the Mailing List Proud-Pakistani. Though I must agree that it may all boil down to be pure speculation but it does contain some interesting points worth pondering over
I’ve [the author of the email discussion] been trying to make head or tail out of the present election scenario and here’s some thoughts;
- 90% chances that elections would be delayed and PML (Q) is the only party other than MQM that knows the plan. If you notice that Chaudry’s have not held a single rally/jalsa since Shareef’s return and have been reduced to a drawing room party? Very unlike Chaudry’s not to compete with Nawaz Shareef in showing their strength in Punjab (where image is everything and people follow trend)? Money can bring crowds (different subject if they would vote for you…) and Chaudry’s have no shortage of that and are famous for being generous.
BB might already have sensed it… Her schedule for election campaign has her booked in Sindh till Dec 31? That means no campaign in Punjab as it only leaves her with 6 days for Punjab….? I spoke to a PPP NA ticket holder and he said that we are lost at BB’s strategy (leaving for Dubai for her children when we need her here…) and because of her actions the ticket holders feel that something is up and elections would not be held.. Sidelining Punjab for a national party with interest in PMship is almost giving up on elections!
- Read DAWN today on “Official Poll Results Ready” and you see the plan. However I feel that this was the original plan set up by Musharraf while he wore the whore uniform and had called in elections. The monkey wrench was thrown in by lawyers, international community and Human Rights Associations that pushed Washington to force him to shed his second skin making him vulnerable in making the plan come true because the flip side could cost him his life.
Musharraf’s anger towards Washington has been more than obvious for making him do that..
- On top of above, Nawaz Shareef’s agressive political campaign all over Punjab drawing massive crowds will make it too obvious if they are allocated only 20 seats in NA and that is scaring Mush camp as it would be hard to legitimize results.
- Most important; First official statement of the new COAS Ashfaq Kiyani in Nawaiwaqt that “We will ensure that elections are held in a way that the wishes of the people are respected”. This must have given Mush goose pimples!!
- News from right quarters with links in the military is that “Nadeem Taj”, DGISI has been replaced by another General “Hameed ….” who was promoted and placed in that position by Kiyani.
Nadeem Taj was related to Musharraf being married to Musharraf’s sister daughter! If that is true then it’s the single biggest blow to Musharraf and a clear statement by Army that they would not be a party in rigging elections and as we all know rigging without ISI is difficult and use of police for the purpose is dangerous and exposed easily….so rulers clearly avoid that.
- For those who watched Musharraf’s interview with CNN Wolf Blitzer, hopefully you all saw the fear, anger and frustration on his face when talking about them not understanding Pakistan’s ground realities. In fact going to the extent of warning America that interference in Pakistan’s internal affairs (by that he obviously meant to leave him alone to manupilate elections) would be disasterous. Almost begging Western media to call on him anytime for interviews?
It shows Musharraf feels the isolation as the people who matter in Washington have already started talking to Kiyani directly. Musharraf clearly wants the powers in Washington to play their due role in instructing Kiyani to follow the election “game plan” as was set with their approval post judiciary fiasco…I feel that washington must have given him a rosy picture to get the unform off assuring him of Presedency for 5 years and giving a pat on his election plan. Without that Musharraf would never have agreed to take off his uniform as the stakes for him are serious and could leed to the first General who will see death by hanging..
- From someone who knows one of the 17 retired Generals who signed a petition against Musharraf told me that he made a social call on one of them and was told that some good news would be coming soon …??
So here’s how I would sum it up; IF
- ISI does not assist rig elections and Kiyani refuses to oblige.
- PML (Q) fails to draw huge crowds soon in Punjab
- Judiciary refuses to bowdown and majority of judges sitting outside continue to stand ground (Mind you forces close to Mush are still working on judges)
- Washington continues it’s isolation or lack of commitment to Musharraf.
then I feel that before end December, Musharraf will call it a day, hand over power to someone else. New COAS will guarantee his safe exit out of Pakistan (In the interest of Army’s prestige). Kiyani will extend election schedule another month, all parties will be allowed to participate including both Shareef brothers. People will be happy and sing songs of Pak Army Zindabad vindicating it’s repute. Musharraf will move on to Istunbul in his new villa (rumour has it that just recently it has been furnished).