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Election Plan in Jeopardy – A Discussion

I am copying an email from discussion on the Mailing List Proud-Pakistani. Though I must agree that it may all boil down to be pure speculation but it does contain some interesting points worth pondering over

I’ve [the author of the email discussion] been trying to make head or tail out of the present election scenario and here’s some thoughts;

  1. 90% chances that elections would be delayed and PML (Q) is the only party other than MQM that knows the plan. If you notice that Chaudry’s have not held a single rally/jalsa since Shareef’s return and have been reduced to a drawing room party? Very unlike Chaudry’s not to compete with Nawaz Shareef in showing their strength in Punjab (where image is everything and people follow trend)? Money can bring crowds (different subject if they would vote for you…) and Chaudry’s have no shortage of that and are famous for being generous.

    BB might already have sensed it… Her schedule for election campaign has her booked in Sindh till Dec 31? That means no campaign in Punjab as it only leaves her with 6 days for Punjab….? I spoke to a PPP NA ticket holder and he said that we are lost at BB’s strategy (leaving for Dubai for her children when we need her here…) and because of her actions the ticket holders feel that something is up and elections would not be held.. Sidelining Punjab for a national party with interest in PMship is almost giving up on elections!

  2. Read DAWN today on “Official Poll Results Ready” and you see the plan. However I feel that this was the original plan set up by Musharraf while he wore the whore uniform and had called in elections. The monkey wrench was thrown in by lawyers, international community and Human Rights Associations that pushed Washington to force him to shed his second skin making him vulnerable in making the plan come true because the flip side could cost him his life.
    Musharraf’s anger towards Washington has been more than obvious for making him do that..
  3. On top of above, Nawaz Shareef’s agressive political campaign all over Punjab drawing massive crowds will make it too obvious if they are allocated only 20 seats in NA and that is scaring Mush camp as it would be hard to legitimize results.
  4. Most important; First official statement of the new COAS Ashfaq Kiyani in Nawaiwaqt that “We will ensure that elections are held in a way that the wishes of the people are respected”. This must have given Mush goose pimples!!
  5. News from right quarters with links in the military is that “Nadeem Taj”, DGISI has been replaced by another General “Hameed ….” who was promoted and placed in that position by Kiyani.

    Nadeem Taj was related to Musharraf being married to Musharraf’s sister daughter! If that is true then it’s the single biggest blow to Musharraf and a clear statement by Army that they would not be a party in rigging elections and as we all know rigging without ISI is difficult and use of police for the purpose is dangerous and exposed easily….so rulers clearly avoid that.

  6. For those who watched Musharraf’s interview with CNN Wolf Blitzer, hopefully you all saw the fear, anger and frustration on his face when talking about them not understanding Pakistan’s ground realities. In fact going to the extent of warning America that interference in Pakistan’s internal affairs (by that he obviously meant to leave him alone to manupilate elections) would be disasterous. Almost begging Western media to call on him anytime for interviews?

    It shows Musharraf feels the isolation as the people who matter in Washington have already started talking to Kiyani directly. Musharraf clearly wants the powers in Washington to play their due role in instructing Kiyani to follow the election “game plan” as was set with their approval post judiciary fiasco…I feel that washington must have given him a rosy picture to get the unform off assuring him of Presedency for 5 years and giving a pat on his election plan. Without that Musharraf would never have agreed to take off his uniform as the stakes for him are serious and could leed to the first General who will see death by hanging..

  7. From someone who knows one of the 17 retired Generals who signed a petition against Musharraf told me that he made a social call on one of them and was told that some good news would be coming soon …??

    So here’s how I would sum it up; IF

    • ISI does not assist rig elections and Kiyani refuses to oblige.
    • PML (Q) fails to draw huge crowds soon in Punjab
    • Judiciary refuses to bowdown and majority of judges sitting outside continue to stand ground (Mind you forces close to Mush are still working on judges)
    • Washington continues it’s isolation or lack of commitment to Musharraf.

    then I feel that before end December, Musharraf will call it a day, hand over power to someone else. New COAS will guarantee his safe exit out of Pakistan (In the interest of Army’s prestige). Kiyani will extend election schedule another month, all parties will be allowed to participate including both Shareef brothers. People will be happy and sing songs of Pak Army Zindabad vindicating it’s repute. Musharraf will move on to Istunbul in his new villa (rumour has it that just recently it has been furnished).


3 Comments

  • Raza |

    For the sake of Pakistan, I hope there’s some truth in this. It would be mad for the Pakistan Army to keep following that ONE man’s demented way of doing things. Sanity should prevail and the interest of the country should remain supreme.

  • Jawad Ali |

    Thank you for your thoughtful analysis. Let me add a few thoughts

    1. I see that the key contest in Pakistan is between Dick Cheney and Munir Malik, to put it too simply and crudely. All other contests are side shows (Musharraf/Kiyani, NS/Chaudharies, BB/ISI etc) I say this because Munir Malik and co were influencing the SC to stand up to US/Mush/ISI on rule of law issues. If Cheney wants to fight the global war or terror above US and International law, then he certainly does not want Pakistani rule of law getting in the way of abductions torture and power changes.

    2. If #1 is true then Kiyani pushing aside Musharraf is not so interesting. Kiyani replaces Musharraf as US chamcha as COAS, and some hand picked Laghari/Chaudhri chamcha pecomes president. Musharraf moves to Istanbul. Nothing very interesting changes in Pakistan.

    3. Now, if you are suggesting that Kiyani is starting move against US directions, then we have something interesting. Its possible, bt not likely, and there are no signs of it yet.

    4. You may be reading too much into Kiyani’s call for fair elections. Everyone who rigs elections makes noise about fairness. Right now Musharraf, Chaudhries and Bushies are all calling for fair elections. There may not be anything interesting there.

    5. I dont accept the suggestion that ISI/US/Musharraf etc may be afraid to look too baisharam by rigging the elections too shamelessly. This crowd has shown no shame so far.

    6. If you accept my point number 1, or accept that rule of law is the key issue, then only one election result is interesting: The newly elected parliment restores the SC and the president cant/wont do anything to overturn again.

    7. There are many election outcomes where the SC or rule of law is not restored by the elected Parliament. For example, PPP wins a fair election. PPP wins a rigged election through some backdoor deal. PPP forms coalition with one PML or the other. None of these are interesting if SC is not restored. Might as well let the Chaudhries win.

    8. Your observation that PPP and PML-Q are leaving Shariefs run the jasla jaloos table in Punjab is very interesting. I dont know enough about it. I dont understand PPP and Chaudhries logic of wasting time now, and then jumping in late after the postponement. Either they fight, or they sit out because the result has been fixed. Delaying the fight makes no sense.

    My lens for all this analysis is very simple: What does any of this have to do with rule of law in Pakistan?