Pakistan’s Nuclear Threat – A State of Denial by Pervaiz Hoodbhoy

By Pervez Hoodbhoy
Published in International Herald Tribune: January 16, 2008

A cacophony of protests in Pakistan greeted a recent statement by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad ElBaradei. “I fear that chaos, or an extremist regime, could take root in that country, which has 30 to 40 warheads,” he said. He also expressed fear that “nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of extremist groups in Pakistan or Afghanistan.”

But in Pakistan, few worry. The Strategic Plans Division, which is the Pakistani agency responsible for handling nuclear weapons, exudes confidence that it can safely protect the country’s “crown jewels.”

The SPD is a key beneficiary of the recently disclosed secret $100 million grant by the Bush administration, the purpose of which is to make Pakistan’s nuclear weapons safer.

This money has been put to use. Indeed, ever since Sept. 11, 2001, there has been a regular traffic of Pakistani military officers to and from the United States for coaching in nuclear safety techniques.

While multiple layers of secrecy make it hard to judge success, the improvement in the SPD’s public relations is palpable. PowerPoint presentations, guided tours of military headquarters and calculated expressions of openness have impressed foreign visitors.

Senator Joseph Lieberman, chairman of a Homeland Security and governmental affairs committee, left reassured. After a briefing by the SPD’s chief, Lieutenant General Khalid Kidwai, Lieberman declared in a press conference, “Yes, he did allay my fears,” and promised to carry that message back to Congress.

So, is ElBaradei needlessly alarmed? Of the two diametrically opposed opinions, which deserves greater credence?

The two men are looking at different things. Lieberman was impressed by how well Pakistani nuclear handlers have been tutored in the United States. ElBaradei, on the other hand, expressed a broader concern. He presumably reasoned that safety procedures and their associated technologies are only as safe as the men who use them.

This is the crux of the problem. Pakistan has become steadily more radicalized as the influence of Islamists increases in its culture and society. The deliberate nurturing of jihadism by the state has, over 30 years, produced extremism inside parts of the military and intelligence. Today, some parts are at war with other parts.

This chilling truth is now manifest. A score of suicide attacks in the last few weeks, some bearing a clear insider signature, have rocked an increasingly demoralized military and intelligence establishment. For example, an unmarked bus of the Inter Services Intelligence agency was collecting employees for work early in the morning in Rawalpindi when it was boarded by a suicide bomber who killed 25 when he blew himself up. The ISI had not recovered from this shock when, just weeks later, another bus was blown up as it entered the service’s closely guarded secret headquarters.

Elite commandos of the Special Services Group have fared no better. Here, the suicide bomber was an army man. Still more recently, a group of six Pakistani militants, reportedly brainwashed by clerics linked to Al Qaeda, was arrested in December for plotting suicide attacks against military targets. Their leader was revealed to be a former army major, Ahsan-ul-Haq, who had masterminded the Nov. 1 suicide attack on a Pakistan Air Force bus that killed 9 people and wounded 40 others in the city of Sargodha, where nuclear weapons are said to be stored.

Fearful of more attacks, military officers have begun the transition to a new, surprisingly modest lifestyle. They have given up wearing uniforms except on duty, move in civilian cars accompanied by guards in plain clothes, and no longer flout their rank in public.

As the rift within widens, many questions pose themselves. Can collusion between different field-level nuclear commanders – each responsible for different parts of the weapon – result in the hijacking of one complete weapon? Could jihadist outsiders develop links with sympathetic custodial insiders?

Many vexing questions concern the weapons laboratories and production units. Given the sloppy work culture, it is hard to imagine that accurate records have been maintained over a quarter century of fissile-material production. So, can one be certain that small, but significant, quantities of highly enriched uranium have not made their way out? More ominously, religious fervor in these places has grown enormously over the last 30 years.

One does not know if radical Islamists may soon acquire the technical expertise and the highly enriched uranium needed for a crude nuclear device, which could be built in-situ. But it is quite certain that, having gone to the trouble of getting it, they will use it if they can. One should not assume that London or New York will be the preferred targets because Islamabad and Delhi may be just as good – and certainly much easier. In the twisted logic of the fanatics, there is little or no difference between apostates and those who are the tools of apostates. The suicide bombings inside mosques, and in Pakistan’s public places, send exactly this message.

Nevertheless, we Pakistanis live in a state of denial. Even as suicide bombings escalate, criticism of religious extremists remains taboo. The overwhelming majority still attributes recent terrorist events – such as the assassination of Benazir Bhutto – to the Musharraf government. But these delusions will eventually shatter. At some point we will surely see that ElBaradei’s warning makes sense. ISI had not recovered from this shock when, just weeks later, another bus was blown up as it entered the service’s closely guarded secret headquarters.


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6 responses to “Pakistan’s Nuclear Threat – A State of Denial by Pervaiz Hoodbhoy”

  1. ALIVEPAKISTAN.COM Avatar

    Good article. Thanks for sharing with us.

  2. Unaiza Fatima Avatar
    Unaiza Fatima

    “One should not assume that London or New York will be the preferred targets because Islamabad and Delhi may be just as good – and certainly much easier. In the twisted logic of the fanatics, there is little or no difference between apostates and those who are the tools of apostates. The suicide bombings inside mosques, and in Pakistans public places, send exactly this message.”

    Highly agreeable point. Though I mostly disagree with many of Hoodbhoy’s ideas and writings about the nuclear issue, this point is exactly what the extremist threat means to the world and us.

  3. Mansoor Avatar
    Mansoor

    Oh God! What has Zia-ul-Haq unleashed!!

    I would squarely blame him for shamelessly using religion to hold onto power! Reagan and George Herbert Walker Bush’s administrations too are to be blamed. After the Soviet withdrawal, they abandoned the region which became a fertile ground for all sorts of destructive forces. They had no foresight or a “Marshall Plan.”

  4. M.Hassan Avatar
    M.Hassan

    Well Pervez Hoodbhoy saheb , I dont know the reason why
    you keep writing these anti-pakistan articles, you are a professor, your contribution should be in the education sector. What credibility you have to write these types of articles . Zionist and indian elements out there are also trying to prove to the world that pakistan’s nuclear weopons are at a risk . You can not deny the anti pakistan propaganda which is being carried out by American media. You and I know that this American media is controlled by zionists they are fearful of the idea of a Muslim nation having nuclear bombs. By writing these types of articles you are fufiling the agenda of the zionists and indians.
    Pakistan made nukes despite of the fact that RAW and Mousad tried to stop pakistan from making them. You must have read the book “By way of deception ” written by a former Mousad agent, In which
    he has given ample proof that Mousad tried to stop Pakistan from maiking nukes. If we can make nukes desspite of the resistance of these rouge agencies we can also save them from extremists. You always criticize
    Pakistan in a very harsh way. We dont need people like you who always try to demoralize Pakistani nation. People like you always criticize and do nothing practicaly to solve the problem. You should focus on your physics department. You always criticize HEC but can I ask you a simple question. What measures you have taken for the betterment of your physics department?

  5. aftab Chaudry Avatar
    aftab Chaudry

    I kind of a agree with Mr.Hassan 80% of the time.

  6. Rameez Avatar
    Rameez

    Mr Hoodbhoy
    Only one question……..
    who is paying you for this anti-Pakistan bullshit?
    You seem more of an Indian.
    specially after your recent excursions on certain TV channels.