Guest Blog by Zovc
The latest IRI survey released on 11th of February indicates once again that Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) will clean sweep the February 18th elections. These elections are thought to be one of the most critical in Pakistani history not just because they will decide the fate of Pakistan for the next five-years and its repercussions but also the fate of War on terror and neighboring Muslim nations.
The survey boldly (93%) claims that the federation has been significantly weekend by the assignation of the Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, 62% of the people in Pakistan believe that the government was indeed involved in the assassination and there are indeed sympathizers of the Al Qaeda ideology within the intelligence and defense agencies.
PPP seems to have a stronghold over the upcoming elections, 58% of the people said that PPP will secure the majority National Assembly seats in the upcoming elections and 50% of the people will vote for PPP candidates. Makhdom Amin Fahim(PPP) is seen as the most favorable political personality where 66% of the people see him as a favorable political personality. Also 56% of the people said Amin Fahim should be the next Prime Minister followed by Javed Hashmi(PML-N) at 15%. Amin Faheem is also believed to be the most ideal person to deal with Pakistans problems with 32% in favor followed by the 23% favoring Nawaz Sharif.
PML-Q seems to be nowhere near of winning even the second to majority seats in the upcoming elections. 80% of the people said PML-Q has performed poorly in their rule from 2002-2007. 79% the people would say that the elections have been rigged if they were told PML-Q won the majority National Assembly seats. PML-Q also seem to be low on popularity where Pervez Musharraf(PML-Q) [16%], Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain(PML-Q) [12%] Pervez Elahi(PML-Q) [14%] seemed to be the least favored personalities. Only 5% of the people said Pervez ELahi can best handle the problems faced by Pakistan today.
*The statistics above are subject to a margin of error between +/-1.69% overall.
While I agree that these polls do not augur well for PML-Q, I would suggest caution in reading these poll numbers for the following reasons:
1. These polls based on small samples have been notoriously wrong, most recently in the US primaries. None of these polls predicted the Obama phenomenon and declared McCain’s candidacy dead just before the New Hampshire primary.
2. 50% of the voters saying they’ll vote for PPP does not necessarily translate into 50% or more of the NA and PA seats. You have to consider regional, ethnic, religious parties and 3, 4 or 5 way contests.
3. In answer to the question “Would you say the ruling coalition has done a good enough job to deserve re-election”, 29% of the respondents said yes, 62% said no and the rest did not know or did not answer. This suggests that there’s some ambivalence among 10-20 % of the people in this sample as to who to vote for.
So the words like “clean sweep” or “land-slide” do not necessarily apply. In fact, it is misleading.
Based on this poll, it is likely that PPP will emerge as the single largest party, though not necessarily with 50% of the seats. The rest of the seats will probably be won by PML(N), PML(Q), MQM, JUI and ANP in that order. The composition of the future government will likely depend on whether the traditional rivals in the PML(N) and the PPP can really work together and reach an accommodation with Musharraf, at least for a while.
The fear still remains that, if the results are substantially different from this expected outcome, the predictable mass protests in Pakistan will succeed in upending the entire nation and its economy with severe negative, long term consequences for Pakistan.
Such a situation could lead to another military takeover and Martial Law setting the political process back. It is in the best interest of all Pakistani leaders to show flexibility in the interest of advancing the political process without repeating the vicious cycle Pakistan has been in for the last 50 years.
The PPP secured 38% of the votes polled in 1970 and scored a huge victory in 1970. It never polled more than this percentage. There have been many polls during the last 12 months but none exceeded 30% for the PPP. The two most recent polls put PPP vote at 37% and the lastest at 50%. The trend as recorded in several polls over the last 18 months is clearly up and shows a sharp upswing in January 2007, by the same agencies. This can not be ignored. Even it is 40% and not 50%, this would be enough for the PPP to score a lanslide victory in a free and fair elections. Mush is visibly nervous and making stupid comments. The polls (taking representative regional and city-wise sample) follow the same techniques the world over. Yes, they are polls and can not predict actual results but they are standard tool to gauge sentiment and trend and the trend is unmistakably clear… the PPP is heading towards a majority in the national assembly
Though none of the surveys can ever be exactly accurate this does give us a picture as to the situation of pakistan. Where PPP may not win 50% of the NA seats its sure to win atleast around 30% still having the majority. It is also clear that PML-Q will be third in the polls and no one needs any surveys to tell them that. The PML-Q chaudries are very low on popularity wasie hee, and you dont need an IQ of 135 to figure that if PML-Q wins the majority of NA seats the polls are rigged.
Also heres a lame attempt at faking Musharafs popularity:
Musharraf popularity poll exposed as Internet fraud
WASHINGTON: A public opinion poll that suggested an increase in President Pervez Musharrafs popularity since he stepped down as army chief and became a civilian president has one major flaw: the US-based organisation that claims to have conducted the poll does not exist.
Also i checked the whois of the domain name and its:
Domain Name: IPUBLICPOLLS.COM
iPhlux Technologies (Pvt.) Ltd.
M. Amir Khan (firstname.lastname@example.org)
4th Floor, Mateen Gallery, 172-J,
Creation Date: 04-Oct-2007
Expiration Date: 04-Oct-2008
This just goes to show how desprate the PML-Q is right now!
I think you might have missed the story on our blog as well International Public Opinion Polls – Pro-Musharraf Propaganda EXPOSED
For those who are interested, here is the Original survey: http://www.iri.org/mena/pakistan/2008-02-11-Pakistan.asp
All Rise, mabadolat, badshah slamat, Shah Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari has entered the court, flanked by the wise men of the empire, the holder of torch Raja Asif Ali Zardari and the loyal servent and wazir Amin Fahim followed by other insignificant forgetable wannabe characters..yes sireee..go ahead vote for these clowns, I have a feeling with the global inflation rate 10% wont cut it this time, brace yourself for higher commission.. but hey what do ya wanna do.. democracy doesn’t cheap I guess!