Guest Blog by Temporal from Baithak
The KSE 100 index has fallen below 13000 to an eight month low. There are rumors of three members who may default. The contributing factors have been:
- The Rabbani government’s inability to provide economic leadership
- SBP’s unprecedented pre market opening rate hike
- Co chairman of the hand written will’s egotistical and hard hitting interview taking swipes at Musharraf
- Musharraf has reportedly broken off conciliatory ‘contacts’ with PPP leadership and called in a meeting of constitutional experts
- Moody’s lowering of ratings for four leading banks
- Law Minister Naik’s expected constitutional amendment while admitting he and his allies do not have a two-thirds majority to carryit through in both houses
- Ishaq Dar’s rants in the media is pushing away foreign investors
A combination of above will result in uncertain and turbulent economic climate. With shortages of electricity, essential commodities, oil, flight of capital and lack of vision in leadership indicates tough times.
The poor and the middle case will be the worse off. Nor do affairs, in the near future look rosy for the nascent democratic forces. Despite his public loathing, Kayani and Co. is being inadvertently pushed to be more proactive.
When will this chaos end?
Comments
14 responses to “Khuda Khair Karay”
I have my sources saying either mush or the assemblies will go within the next 2 days. Its been a bloodbath at the KSE and with that a liquidity crunch has entered the markets, thus banks are pushing up interest rates and rates of return on trm deposits to encourage capital. However as anyone who does business in Karachi and Pakistan knows right now there is no capital to be found. There is a serious economic disaster looming
Being a Senior Financial Analyst myself and associated with one of the most important industry, i myself is facing loads of problem in my dealings with international banks. The lower of country rating has significantly increased the cost of doing business in Pakistan and hence made it less attractive for foreign investment. Moreover, now that the monetary policy is even further tightened, its impact will be felt in both manufacturing as well as real estate industry. The depreciation of our currency will make our imports more expensive and in an economy where imports are approximately 60% higher then our exports, a serious crises will is on the corner.
The energy crises, the food crises and now the crises in our financial markets are surely a symbol of deteriorating situation. In this scenario, if someone wants to help us, they will surely demand a very high price.
Will it be American asking us to allow its forces in the tribal areas or demanding a free access to the whole country? Lets see what price we will pay for this crises? Or will it be the Arabs who have loads of oil money to fund us out of this scenario.
@M Junaid Khan
Shouldn’t the depreciated currency rate help the exports? and thus manufacturing?
But I’m sure if the interest rates are increased it would hurt the stock exchange as well as Real Estate. I don’t mind if the RE is hurt though. I hope it (Housing) becomes more affordable.
I think Capital ($$$) is flying out of the country and this will hurt every where.
I thought the economic Packages that Pakistan got would be very long lasting. I guess I was wrong, the creeps were filling their pockets with a higher rate.
So were we living on Borrowed TIME?
@Teeth,
I respect your views and concern, but please dont confuse the issues which you are not expert in to, the markets around the world are falling like a rock because of oil prices and food inflation.
The US DJIA is down 500 points in one week, its worst fall in recent months and reasons are oil prices and inflation, one more thing Pakistan market is up while US stock markets are still down year level.
Our media is realy non sense in trems of market analysis, they even dont know the basics of market ethics, they spread rumors and bring on comentators who even dont have basic knowledge of finance.
As we know markets are sensative to such issues, media must care to bring people who are good in finance for comments and confirm every news before broadcasting and SECP needs to make laws in this regards to control media.
Dont appriaiate everything mdia do with close eyes.
And rate hike was needed for a long time, but still we want some professionals in finance ministry, there are other ways to control inflation.
ONCE AGAIN PLEASE REFRAIN TO POST ISSUES ON WHICH YOU DONT HAVE EXPERTIES!
I really really want housing boom to be crashed in Karachi so I can afford the house. How come the prices have hiked 400% in last 5 years 🙁 A middle class person can’t even dream to buy a house.
Silence:
thanks for your comments here
just one point: this was a ‘guest’ post
i fully agree with ‘media’ hosts’ lack of research and preparation when they have financial experts as guests… 95% of the time they wing through
i wish more people bring it to their attention
Hum Bolain gae toe bolo gae ke bolta ha…………….
Hi
I think i can understand and as a response to the question u raised at the end – it wont be soon becuase when India had a sort of sweeping politico-social changes though led by eco-liberalisation, it experienced even more tumultous times. Though I was a school boy at that point in time, but I have read a lot about those days.
I am sure once socio-political situation reconciles and stabilises the economy will strengthen and the pace will be very high!
Directioless Nation, Directionless Leaders are heading towards a big disaster Allah Khair Karay Amin.
It will never end…it will just have new beginnings of the same old story….somehow we are blessed that we are still able to breathe in an air of independence….may God bless us all…Aameen…
I was quite busy last night so can not post in details on my above post, just wanted to have a look on blog, here are some points which all of friends here must understand.
1. Fundamentals of Pakistani economy are very strong, there is huge growth potentail and we can bring our GDP growth up to 10-15% per year. So, thinking that there is any danger of financial collapse is simply lack of understanding.
2. Some people associate this growth with Musharaf government, which is totally a non sense, this increase in recent years is associated with “regional growth”, countries like China and India are also seeing rapid growth rate and the reason is our population and expanding middle class.
3. If we had political stability and enough power supply, our growth ratewould have been around 9-10%.
4. Food prices are hicking everywhere in world, in countries like US, Indonasia and Malaysia food inflation is touching worst level, yesterday Indianasia cut back all oil subsidies and Malaysia signaled to go for cuts, food shortage related “riots” are expected in many parts of world.
5. Oil prices are at at record level, 135 $/b oil is going to effect world economy badly and inflation is getting out of hands of governments. If oil goes to 150/b as predicted by Goldnam Sachs, many economies in world will go in to recession.
6. Now lets us have a look whats causing inflation in Pakistan;
i). First is our exports, we are giving too much subsidies to our textile sector which is not meeting its targets, the influncial owners and fudals who own textile in Pakistan take such subsidies and never invest in technological improvements.
Change in credit rating is related topolitical uncertanity, it dont effect much except adding a little in insurance rates of investment, but still Pakistani investment is giving tremendous returns.
ii). The main reason which is causing inflation is money sent to Pakistan by expetriate Pakistani’s, this money goes in to buying imported cars, electronics and building huge houses, it is not chanelised to industry or stock markets, as a result it adds in to more imports then exports.
iii) In Shauat Azaz a plan was drawn to chanalise this money to production sector but it remained just a paper plan and practically nothing happened.
NOW most important thing to understand is that there is a deficit of 10-12 Billion $ in our exports,but at the same time overseas Pakistani’s send 10-12 Billion a year to pakistan. SO AS A WHOLE OUR ACCOUNT BALANCE REMAINS SAME>
And most disappoint thing is to watch Kamran Khan on GEO TV talking about economy,trade deficit and Stock market, who even dont have an idea how trade works and whats are ethics of talking about stock markets.
Even in indipendent media of USA, SEC has such strict rule for commenting about market or spreading rumours, such TV would have been shut down in next hour, but our medi is free to spread any rumours, just like yesterdays news that 3 brokers has defaulted, even if this would have happened GEO would have fined for millions by SEC and shut down, its not only irresponsible but criminal.
And in last, if we have some good finance managers in government, we still are in position to be the best economy in Asia and best market in world.
As this is a responsible Blog so we need to be careful while posting simple speculations which can have negative impect.
Well Said Silence!!!.This chaos(food shortage and high oil prices) seems to be Global.Yesterday i went to desi shop to buy groceries and guess what Rice bags were almost double in price and were flying off the shelves.
Mind you i am in Canada and i am used to seeing things fill up to the roof.But hey things will change.The reason shop keeper gave to me that Indian Government sick and tired of traders exporting way more in order to make profits and leaving very little for their own country men.So Government tried to step in and thats why we are seeing rice prices going up to brace an upcoming shortage of exports from India.
Now to the gas prices.Well people are cutting down travel plans due to high gas prices.The story is same whether you own the vehicle or decide to take train or plane.I was in shocked when i saw $1 equals to 70Rs and our property prices in Pakistan keep sky rocketing.
okay enough of my rants.
Dee
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LOL @ Tahseen Alam khan.
Dee