Country nears a Long March frenzy, but a deal brews underneath

I write this blog post early Sunday morning at around 5am, so my thoughts might not be all that coherent, but I feel some pressing points need to be shared before the Lahore stand off takes off in barely five hours from now at 10am on March 15th

  1. Shahbaz Sharif had a very urgent meeting in Islamabad last night [13th March] where he flew from Lahore to Islamabad [eye witness confirm], the talks were afoot that a few deals were being negotiated – namely the eligibility of Nawaz and Shahbaz would be settled, Shahbaz Sharif would then reinstated as Chief Minister and Governor Salman Taseer will be shown the door, in exchange the Sharif brothers will end the Long March with immediate effect. These basic issues were agreed upon by both sides [even the idea of ending the long march / defusing it], what remained a tackling issue was the exact process on how to reinstate Iftikhar Chaudhry. Shahbaz Sharif allegedly wanted solid guarantees and merely the ‘word’ of Zardari carried little weight, COAS Kiyani and Hilary Clinton were being propped up to foot the final claim but reassurances were not entirely satisfactory [or so we are told]. Shahbaz returned having not finalized the deal on the last point
  2. Gilani as off till the 13th March was playing a significant role in negotiations, but on the 14th was visibility out of the picture, he has been propped up by the US Government to play a more responsible role in settling this crisis, word is still out if he can or cannot deliver, but a few statement were made that gave good vibes to the public but it alone cant be the guage of the attitude behind closed doors
  3. None of the lawyers from other cities were permitted to leave their respective cities, Kurd from Quetta, Muneer Malik and Rashid Rizvi from Karachi.- But ironically Sharif brothers are given a free hand to move
  4. Lahore is allegedly clamped down any roads leading into or out of Lahore are effectively sealed
  5. But suddenly today early morning March 15 3:00am a convoy carrying Shahbaz Sharif from Raiwind breaks through a barricade and runs off onto the Motorway towards Islamabad
  6. Moments later news breaks out that hundred of police officers raid Rawalpindi bar thrash the lawyers sleeping there and are reported to have arrested 60 people
  7. March 15th will be the day of resistance in Lahore – to be strategically handled by the elder brother Mian Nawaz Sharif
  8. I honestly suspect this is a deliberate ploy to undermine the presence of Lawyers and other political parties while paving the way for PML-N to stretch their muscles in victory, lawyers being deliberately left on the sidelines, its possible that the only Lawyers that might make an visible appearance could be Aitzaz Ahsan & Hamid Khan arriving on the Constitution avenue, but with the sudden departure of Shahbaz Sharif from Lahore to Islamabad goes to suggest that he has full plans to hold the PML-N fort on the 16th March in Islamabad and would in all likelihood be the only person to really be allowed to make a big show
  9. Not that, it matters as long as there is the independence of Judiciary, but we must keep in mind that the NRO is not be debated and neither is the 17th amendment being talked about.
  10. Lets also not forget that the frenzy of the Long March only started after Shahbaz Sharif lost his Chief Ministership, and prior to that development, PML-N was on the fence playing second fiddle as it has continued to do so since Feb 18th with the Lawyers movement

I can smell some fishy deal under the carpet, the Dharna on the 16th March will take place, Shahbaz will offer himself for arrest and a major street theater will be played out prior to the arrest. I then speculate that suddenly a breakthrough announcement might come out announcing the restoration of Judiciary. PML-N immediately dons the victor cap and celebrates, their own electoral eligibility, their reinstatement as Chief Minister, the end of Salman Taseer’s Governor rule and in the midst of all this fenzy plucks the restoration feather from the lawyers and conveniently embraces it as their own success

I believe the people of Pakistan would then have been two-timed yet again, a power struggle and a series of negotiations all at the hands of some interesting politicians. Considering that we have had a bitter taste of Zardari for the past few months, the Sharifs might still be palatable by the 160 million people – but then for how long? I detest these two-timing politicians making a fool of Pakistan, For the sake of Pakistan, i wish all my speculation above turns out to be a mere figment of my imagination, but ….. knowing our politicians, I can definitely expect the worst


20 responses to “Country nears a Long March frenzy, but a deal brews underneath”

  1. Avatar

    I am disgusted with whatever is happening. NS and AZ are scumbag politicians. NS just wants power and will do anything to get there. He basically hijacked the whole judiciary crisis long march thingie just so that he could get some mileage. Only an idiot would think that he wants to do something for his people. He should remember the attack on the supreme court organized by his minions way back in the late 90s. It's time our people stand up and kick them to the curbside. I have always hated AZ and NS and continue to hate them coz they dont have any credibility. If the report above is true then NS has lost whatever goodwill he had amongst people. Shame on all of you as he basically pulled wool over your eyes and you all fell for it.

  2. shobz Avatar

    I am disgusted with whatever is happening. NS and AZ are scumbag politicians. NS just wants power and will do anything to get there. He basically hijacked the whole judiciary crisis long march thingie just so that he could get some mileage. Only an idiot would think that he wants to do something for his people. He should remember the attack on the supreme court organized by his minions way back in the late 90s. It's time our people stand up and kick them to the curbside. I have always hated AZ and NS and continue to hate them coz they dont have any credibility. If the report above is true then NS has lost whatever goodwill he had amongst people. Shame on all of you as he basically pulled wool over your eyes and you all fell for it.

  3. khalid Avatar


    We have been hearing speculations against Sharifs since more than a year against the judiciary but they have proven everyone wrong every time, starting with their resignations from Federal Cabinet. At this point of time, we don't need any more confusions based on speculations and we need Trust and Unity to move forward and make this event successful. I have serious reservations against the groups who are trying to divide or demoralize the spirit of Long March at this critical time.

    Secondly, your point 10 is incorrect, as the decision for both Long March and Dharna with Ali Ahmed Kurd & Aitzaz was announced way before the Governor Rule in Punjab.

  4. Sohail Avatar

    Nawaz Sharif, savior of the judiciary. Amusing.

    Now was it the same man who ordered the 'attack' on the supreme court and clamped down on the Jang group to the point where they actually thought about winding up their business in Pakistan and moving abroad?

    And Zardari is not even worth the energy to punch in a few keys on my keyboard.

    Hopefully, Imran Khan and more people like him will come through. We need people who have integrity and self respect.

  5. Sahar Avatar

    You are right, of course the politicians are trying to use this cause for their own selfish interests. BUT, I think this time around people are smarter and will see through it. What these politicians, and the Western powers, don't get is that the ground has shifted beneath their feet. It is not the same old Pakistan anymore that can be "controlled" by a small elite that can make deals among themselves. The people have risen, and they can't just beat us back down again so easily.

    My bigger fear is that the leadership of the lawyers' movement will be tempted to take the deal. Listen up, Aitzaz and Kurd and the rest: NO COMPROMISE ON RESTORATION! Do not betray us!

  6. Ahmed Memon Avatar
    Ahmed Memon

    Everything is business.

    In order to file some case in any high/low court a citizen has to pay rishwat to many people from junior clerk to judge, I heard that lawyers are rallying for justice, seems like a joke.

    Nawaz has already abused Media and Courts in past, now wants to build his reputation (recall when he flew away from country to save his life). After-all Pakistani Politics is merely a musical chair game … now Nawaz trying to sit on the chair …

    GEO/Media got ditched once again, I dont know, if Media can act as a Judge or Intelligence-bureau. They got freedom to spread awareness but the footage/videos related to Zardari, is just there to ruin Zardari's reputation to next level. As the business (GEO) knew that majority of Pakistani dont like Zardari not even people within PPP, this is the point of interest for them (GEO).

    What a shame, US is giving guarantee for the Zardari ….

    The more you observe the more you hate these guys.

    This or thousand movements like this are not going to change the fate of this Nation, when we make idol to same old corrupt people

  7. Muhammad Memon Avatar
    Muhammad Memon

    You could be correct. But you could also be wrong.

    I think there's a 50/50 chance you are right.

    Politicians always entertain deals. This is their nature.

    The smartest strategy for the lawyers is to stick to their plan and make a full press.

    Even if the Sharifs are close to a deal, Zardari can screw them, and they will be back with the lawyers.

    So it's not in your interest to make any assumptions right now. Division in the ranks at this point will only weaken your group.

    Just be prepared to have your own side do its best to achieve all your goals.

  8. Muhammad Memon Avatar
    Muhammad Memon

    Whatever happens, history will remember you guys as a sincere voice of real change. The political parties were nothing till civil society rose.

    And I pray that Allah Ta'ala will also reward you all for your efforts. Don't lose focus. Just look forward and march.

  9. Muhammad Memon Avatar
    Muhammad Memon

    Some reports say that Shahbaz was arrested in Rawalpindi.

    So an alternative theory is that Shahbaz went to Islamabad to meet last night and the talks failed. He went back to Lahore and then drove to Rawalpindi. The government knew this but they did not want to be seen as arresting him, but as restricting his movements. So instead of stopping him on the highway and forcibly taking him from point X (point on highway) to Y (a jail), they let him reach his destination (someone's home), where they could just detain him.

    Not sure what's the truth. Let's wait and see. But keep on marching!!

  10. Sana Avatar

    Good analysis! even the media cannot turn its cameras from PML(N).

    but i hope this time we will not fall into the trap.

  11. yaseen ch Avatar

    Actually there was no meeting between shahbaz sharif and prime minister as shahbaz sharif also denied it himself.

    i think it was a short term propagandist news flown to cool down the temperature in peoples mind ahead of a warm day.

  12. dr.jawwadkhan Avatar

    this analysis makes a perfect sense.

    in the countries like pakistan face saving happy end is in the interest of every one except people of pakistan.

    the two major player certainly do not wish to deal with the judiciary capable of opening the missing person case.

    asif zardari has obvious reasons. but i am not sure about shareef brothers, this time their body language is different or at least on television.

    i strongly believe that with in this system every thing is possible except the restoration of judiciary.

    any solution from the system certainly negate the judges issue.

    on the other hand when i see the momentum and the tempo of this movement and emotions of the general public i found myself optimist about "real change"

  13. Muhammad Memon Avatar
    Muhammad Memon

    Now I think the odds of your theory being true is 30%. The violence used against the protesters makes Zardari look even worse. But your theory remains alive because Shahbaz has apparently escaped.

    Anyways, keep the movement going on. Your movement has survived two years and two dictators. Look forward and march!

  14. Muhammad Memon Avatar
    Muhammad Memon

    Zardari is gone. He has declared war on lawyers, pml-n, and civl society.

    Gilani and Kayani are meeting now.

    Keep on marching comrades.

  15. khalid Avatar

    I am glad I was proven right. Just see for yourself on TV.

  16. Muhammad Memon Avatar
    Muhammad Memon

    Khalid, you were right. Stay strong friends. After Zardari is gone, we have to make sure these politicians implement the rule of law from Khyber to Karachi.

    Once Zardari is gone, let us continue to do this with peace and consultation.

  17. azhar aslam Avatar
    azhar aslam

    True Dr Sahib. I smell similar fishiness. But it would be strange and unexpected of Zardari to let Shahbaz make too much of a hero of himself.

    all the politicians on the stage are the the same. selfish and corrupt.

    however its up to us to present pakistani people an alternative.

    what have we done about that ?

  18. Sana Avatar

    So the analysis proven right! Now sharifs,PPP coming as heroes all others are sidelined.

    Lawyers are rightly given the credit but there were many other honest

    From PPP to PML(N)? May we understand this and open our eyes.

  19. Socrates Avatar

    Nawaz Shariff again ditched Imran Khan 🙁

    Alas, how many flags were made but !!!

  20. Syed Avatar

    i HOPE ALL THE FALSE PROPAGANDA BEING SPREAD HAS VANISHED NOW. Can't understand why do you people try to mistrust Nawaz Sharif? Was'nt he who even before the election took oath from his candidates that they would work for restoration of the judiciary? Was 'nt he who negotiated with zardari for the restoration of the deposed judiciary by the dictator? Was'nt he who took his cabinets members out of the federal cabinet for the cause of the judiciary? Or did MQM make its ministers resign after even threatening to do so?

    It is and it will be PML N that would stand for an independent judicairy and it would be its manifesto for times to come.

    Wass'nt it NS who lead the people of Pakistan alongwith Imran and Qazi sb? All played their role and only then the govt was forced to and i repeat forced to restore the judiciary.

    As for the Punjab, do people need any other proof who should be in govt in Punjab? I dare someone else try and form its govt. People of Pak are with all thsoe who sincerely fought the war for retoration of judiciary and fianlly with Allah SWT's Help won it.

    Now we are a nation finally. Imran Khan I salute you (though I am a PML N suppoerter) for your courageous and bold stance through out the moment. If ever PML N let me down, I would not hesitate to join your part i.e. Tehreek Insaf.

    I also congratulate Qazi Sb and Jammat e Islami workers for their victory. Its everybody's victory. Its the nation's victory and we must stand united because testing times are also coming when the PPP NRO, MQM, Fazlu and ANP are going to device a plan to undo the good work done for restoration of judiciary through assembly by amending the constitution to suit their evil designs..

    Wait and see????