New Iran – New Intentions

Guest blog by Ishaal Zehra

The attack which killed the National Deputy Commander of the ground forces of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (RG), General Noor Ali Shooshtari and the provincial commander for Sistan-Baluchistan, Rajab Ali Mohammadzadeh along with some senior officers and 42 others in a homicide bombing inflicted Iran’s worst military casualties in years.

Quick after the mishap, an Iranian military official went as far as to raise the prospect of a possible military offensive into Pakistan against the group blamed for the attack. “There is even unanimity that these operations (could) take place in Pakistan territory,” the ISNA news agency quoted MP Payman Forouzesh as saying. While the headquarters of Iran’s armed forces blamed the bombing on “terrorists” backed by “the Great Satan America and its ally Britain,” Fars News Agency said Sunday.

Islamabad strongly denied the allegations and said the attack was an attempt to “spoil ties” with Iran. “There are forces which are out to spoil our relations with Iran. But our ties are strong enough to counter these machinations,” said the Pakistan’s foreign ministry spokesman Abdul Basit while dismissing the allegations.

The point to ponder is that, how come Pakistan would be wishing to create unrest in some neighbour while its own house is burning. Pakistan has been the victim of worst type of terror since many years. The war which initially started in Afghanistan was purposely shifted to Balochistan province of ours as a part of the Great Game. Amid the GWOT the active involvement of many countries intelligence agencies in Balochistan was observed. These agencies, while playing with the internal conflicts of the center and the Baloch people, are subversively involved in provision of funds and arms to different armed groups. This has been proved many a times that the outlawed armed groups of Balochistan, BLA and BRA are funded and trained by Indian RAW. Even the websites of BLA and greater Balochistan are updated from India. The role of Indian consulate offices in Afghanistan is suspected since their origin.

Keeping in view the sensitivity of the problem, it is difficult for India to openly support the Baluch insurgency because it may harm her relations with Iran (never bother about Pakistan). If the Indians will come out openly in support of the BLA, anti-Indian elements in Pakistan will quickly bracket New Delhi with the alleged Great Game of the US against Iran.

Indian relation with Iran have generally been viewed by observers as a tightrope walking to balance out her interests in Iran as well with the US. India, knowingly, that sidestepping the international community’s efforts to thwart Iran’s so-called drive for nuclear weapons would only devalue her credibility in the eyes of global power, New Delhi is fast trying to convey an unambiguous message that a nuclear armed Iran is as unacceptable to India as it is to the US, the U.K. or France. Hence, India (a good time’s friend) seems to be all set to dump Tehran to seek new alliances and please her new friends.

Iran is a regional power and an aspiring nuclear state which poses a threat to Israeli expansionism in Middle East. There is no denying the fact that Iran’s nuclear programme has been a persistent worry for both, US and Israel. And the choice between new allies and old friend is getting tough on India. To understand India’s dilemma, it requires a critical view of her relation with both Israel and Iran. There has been a steady strengthening of the India’s relationship with Israel ever since India established full diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992. Ever since then, the flourishing Indo- Israel relationship has gained much potential to make a significant impact on the global politics, by altering the balance of power not only in South Asia but the Middle East as well. Today, India has become the biggest market for Israeli arms with their strategic, defence and intelligence cooperation growing at a rapid pace. Where as, on the other hand, the vast oil and gas reserves of Iran serve magnetic affiliation to the quenching India’s long term thirst for energy. And yet another attraction in Iran’s case is that she offers India access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, side-lining Pakistan.

Given the scenario, India is more likely to tilt towards Israel in future. As regardless of her important ties with Arab countries and Iran, her lure for intelligence consultations with Israel seems a durable one. Until now, India has veered between cooperation and altercation in case of Iran yet in the time to come we may expect India to go along with Israel and US in destroying Iran, one of the country in Bush’s war against his self-selected axis of evil. A nuclear Iran suspected of supporting Palestinians and organizations sympathetic to them, faces a great threat of attack on its nuclear installations. And India would support such an operation clandestinely, while opposing in front of the world, not to annoy Iran because of economic reasons. Amusingly, India’s interest in the proposed IPI gas line project diminished sharply from the time the US-India nuclear deal began to take shape. Probably, the US wants to undermine India-Iran economic relations to such an extent that New Delhi becomes a stakeholder in its plan against Iran.

The geopolitical implications of the collaborations between India, US and Israel are grave and manifold. Despite the denials, India is playing a secret role in US strategy against Iran for past many years. India regardless of having close ties with Iran stabbed her in the back by joining EU-3 on Iran’s nuclear issue. It is no more a secret that EU-3 is no longer acting independently, but as a surrogate of the US. How piteous that a democracy ended up as a deputy of a surrogate. History has witnessed how India once used the friendly ties with Tehran as a ladder to achieve US and European community’s support to secure permanent seat in Security Council. Thanks to her mean and wanton nature which made her vote twice against the same Iran in the IAEA governing board, thus endorsing the US agenda for confrontation with Iran. Nevertheless, the Indian vote against Iran has extensively lowered her global structure and credibility. Despite her close economic and political relations, if India could stab a friendly country like Iran in the back, then she could not be considered trustworthy by other developing countries.

The thriving indo-Israeli relations are posing a direct threat to Iran. Their trade has grown exceptionally over the years, especially after the launch of Israeli spy satellite from the Indian Space center, the tie got even stronger. The launch of TecSAR has considerably enhanced Israel’s intelligence-gathering capability. The satellite is clearly affecting the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, as its ability to produce image in adverse weather and even at night allowed Israel to obtain more information about the Iranian nuclear programme. Though India officially argues that she has commercially utilized her advanced technological capacity but the act brought to light India’s full cooperation to dissuade, isolate and if necessary sanction and contain Iran. Nevertheless, Iran should realize that a friend of your enemy can never be your friend and India has already established herself as Israel’s friend and Iran’s foe at many instances.

It is time that India’s credibility as a friendly democracy should be weighed by other developing countries of the world. The Indo-Israel nexus, under the US patronage, is posing a threat to the Muslim world. All their ambitions revolve around targeting particularly Muslim states that are energy rich and either nuclear or threshold nuclear states. It is high time that the Islamic countries take a unified and concrete step to cater this ghastly menace, or else it might become too late.