Barely two days before the arrival of Benazir Bhutto on Oct 18th, a very respected and trusted source had the opportunity to meet a high level bureaucrat from the Musharraf regime (I would like to protect the source and the contact) for a casual dinner, naturally at that time the hot issue under scrutiny was the petition against Musharraf and the grand reception of Benazir Bhutto barely a few days way on the 18th of October. The discussion was held I assume in confidence but now most of the statements have turned out to be correct and I now choose to examine the issue retrospectively.
The high level source was very confident in saying that No power sharing deal exists between Benazir and Musharraf, BB is just coming to Karachi for a spectacular publicity stunt and within 10-15 days she will make a beeline exit to Dubai sporting the excuse of an ailing husband or mother out in Dubai. The entire reason for this exit was the legitimacy of the NRO (National
Robbers Reconciliatory Ordinance) which was deliberately drafted with inbuilt flaws ensuring that it would not stand a chance in court, the only dilemma was to delay it so that Begum could swing through her stunt cycle. The flaw in the NRO was so apparent that the mumbling and grumbling PML-Q leadership also was at ease been assured that that Benazir would not be a threat to their stay in power, and we all witnessed as subdued silence from the PML-Q leading to October 18th.
Somehow at that time this reasoning did a little naive or gullible, I simply expected more from a veteran politician like BB, my questioning was quite simply, why would BB risk her political career for a mere 10-15 days of fame, only to shuttle back to Dubai as rubber stamped as a bonafide coward? The question quite literally answered itself if you were see this deal in light of the recent developments when we watched the Swiss court judges out of frustration say that nothing more can be done in her corruption case since the Government of Pakistan is unwilling to come forth and prosecute any further, in actual effect leaving the case high and dry and abandoned. Once the Swiss case is wrapped up it will instantly unfreeze her assets opening the flood gates to millions of dollars in incurred interest charges which have piled up over the years, definitely a far juicer steak considering the bread crumb rupees she might have to squabble over sitting in Pakistan.
The settlement of Swiss cases meant that PPP could be molded to go soft in the then-upcoming presidential elections where refrained from casting their vote, had they offered a fight for their nomination Amin Fahim the 50 odd votes required to unseat Musharraf would have swung gingerly from an ailing Musharraf regime to the brighter prospects of Roti Kapra Makan chant of Benazir Bhutto heck even the stalwarts of PML-Q could not have been trusted alone inside the voting booth. Musharraf had to play it safe, and he tactfully removed the PPP competition (by offering the NRO) while the MMA simply splashed around with no major disturbances.
Today when we watch report of Benazir Bhutto making a statement such as
“I am going to Dubai to see my children and ailing mother, Bhutto was quoted as telling members of her party at Karachi airport by a senior party official. “I will return to Pakistan on November 8, he quoted her as saying.
My heart screams LIAR, say whatever you want but she has run out of the country and will most likely find some lame excuse to miss the rally in Islamabad, after all Pakistani politicians are born lottas
Musharraf’s Presidency Petition
On October 16th I had written a post on this blog October 17 Court Decision – Dont Expect Much where I tried to analyze the result on Musharraf’s Presidency Petition, I am on record to have said If we take a close look at the 11-member bench, in light of their previous decisions, the bench seemingly poised at 6-5 against Musharraf, he now needs only to sway one judge to swing this decision into his favor according to me Musharraf only needed one judge to swing the decision to his favor, but ‘the source’ was very confident that Musharraf has that decision in the bag with not one judge margin but instead two and predicted a favorable decision of 7-4 for Musharraf. In the next few days we shall find out if this last important piece of information stands to be correct, lets all hold our breath.
I must admit that I have tried to share my own understanding of the present political situation retrospectively in light of a little information I received a few days earlier, my analysis could very well be skewed, and open the floor for discussion to others who may have better theory of whats going on but I must say that Pakistan has suffered yet again at the hands of these politicians this two week bhangra stunt left us 150 dead and over 500 injured, all maybe for a wasted cause,